North at 10 to 15 knots.
Moderate with a wave height of 3 to 5 feet.
CSU released its final forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, 3 August.
We maintain our forecast for an above-average 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
While a robust El Niño has developed and is likely to persist for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, most of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic has record warm sea surface temperatures for this time of year. El Niño increases vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, but the extreme anomalous warmth in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is anticipated to counteract some of the typical El Niño-driven increase in vertical wind shear. The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be above the long-period average. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2023
| Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010 Average (in parentheses) | Issue Date 3 August 2023 |
| Named Storms (NS) (14.4) | 18 |
| Hurricanes (H) (7.2) | 9 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) (3.2) | 4 |
By: CSU University Communications Staff
STORM NAME | DATES ACTIVE | STAGE |
Unnamed Subtropical Storm | January 16 - 17 | STS |
Arlene | June 1 - 3 | TS |
Bret | June 19 - 24 | TS |
Cindy | June 22 - 26 | TS |
Don | July 14 - 24 | H |
Emily | August 20 - 21 | TS |
Franklin | August 20 - September 1 | MH |
Gert | August 19 - September 4 | TS |
Harold | August 21 - 23 | TS |
Idalia | August 26 - 31 | MH |
Jose | August 29 - September 1 | TS |
Katia | August 31 - September 4 | TS |
Lee | September 5 - 16 | MH |
Margot | September 7 - 16 | H |
Nigel | September 15 – 22 | H |
Ophelia | September 22–23 | TS |
Philippe | September 23 – October 6 | TS |
Rina | September 28 - October 1 | TS |
Sean | October 10 - 15 | TS |
Tammy | October 18 – 28 | H |
Twenty-One | October 23 - 24 | TD |
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
No tropical cyclones formed in the Atlantic basin in the month of November. Based on a 30-year climatology (1991-2020), a tropical storm forms in November once every year or two, and a hurricane forms once every two years. A disturbance (Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two) caused heavy rains and flooding across portions of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and Hispaniola during the middle part of the month, but the system did not become a tropical cyclone.
Overall, the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season had above-normal activity in terms of the number of named storms but a normal amount of activity in terms of the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes. In 2023, 20 storms of at least tropical storm strength formed, of which 7 became hurricanes and 3 became major hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). This compares to the long-term (1991-2020) averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in the basin in 2023 was about 20 percent above average compared to the long-term (1991-2020) mean.
Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the National Hurricane Center website at www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl