North at 10 to 15 knots.
Moderate with a wave height of 3 to 5 feet.
Slightly below average activity expected for the 2019 hurricane season
We anticipate that the 2019 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly below normal activity. The current weak El Niño event appears likely to persist and perhaps even strengthen this summer/fall. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are slightly below normal, and the far North Atlantic is anomalously cool. Our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is below its long-term average. We anticipate a slightly below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2019
Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010 Average (in parentheses) | Issue Date 4 April 2019 |
| Named Storms (NS) (12.1) | 13 |
| Hurricanes (H) (6.4) | 5 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.7) | 2 |
By Philip J. Klotzbach, Michael M. Bell and Jhordanne Jones
In Memory of William M. Gray
STORM NAME | DATES ACTIVE | STAGE |
Andrea | May 20 - 21 | STS |
Barry | Jul 11 - 15 | H |
Three | Jul 22 - 23 | TD |
Chantal | Aug 20 - 23 | TS |
Dorian | Aug 24 - Sep 7 | MH |
Erin | Aug 26 - 29 | TS |
Fernand | Sep 3 - 5 | TS |
Gabrielle | Sep 3 - 10 | TS |
Humberto | Sep 13 - 19 | MH |
Jerry | Sep 17 - 24 | H |
Imelda | Sep 17 - 19 | TS |
Karen | Sep 22 - 27 | TS |
Lorenzo | Sep 23 - Oct 2 | MH |
Melissa | Oct 11 - 14 | TS |
Fifteen | Oct 14 - 16 | TD |
Nestor | Oct 18 - 19 | TS |
Pablo | Oct 25 - 28 | H |
Olga | Oct 25 | TS |
Rebekah | Oct 30 - Nov 1 | STS |
Sebastien | Nov 19 - 24 | TS |
The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season was the fourth consecutive above-average and damaging season dating back to 2016. However, many were weak and short-lived, especially towards the end of the season. Six of those named storms achieved hurricane status, while three intensified into major hurricanes. Two storms became Category 5 hurricanes, marking the fourth consecutive season with at least one Category 5 hurricane, the third consecutive season to feature at least one storm making landfall at Category 5 intensity, and the seventh on record to have multiple tropical cyclones reaching Category 5 strength. The season officially began on June 1 and ended on November 30. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin and are adopted by convention. However, tropical cyclogenesis is possible at any time of the year, as demonstrated by the formation of Subtropical Storm Andrea on May 20, making this the fifth consecutive year in which a tropical or subtropical cyclone developed outside of the official season.